What is Predictive Analysis in Aviation SMS?
Predictive analysis is an activity whereby you analyze operational processes, tasks, systems, and safety resources in order to predict safety exposure that hasn't yet been identified. Predictive analysis is the primary way of practicing predictive risk management.
Predictive risk analysis is not a "better" form of analysis than proactive risk analysis and reactive risk analysis. Each type of analysis is entirely separate from other types of analysis, having different methods and different goals. The goals of predictive analysis in aviation SMS programs are:
- Identify safety concerns that haven't been identified;
- Identify exposure in existing processes and systems;
- Identify probable hazard/risk occurrences that haven't happened yet but are likely given existing operations; and
- Make informed safety decisions before exposure occurs.
Activities for Predictive Analysis
Common activities for predictive risk management are:
There are many tools that can be used to for predictive analysis activities, such as bowties.